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Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Iraqi Tet?

There has been constant speculation that the Enemy will attempt an "Iraqi Tet." A militarily insignificant, but boldly psychologically damaging attack that will sway public opinion in the Homeland. Our friend on the ground in Iraq, Mr. Democracy, chimes with commentary on this piece describing a foiled Tet attempt:

Everybody here has been anticipating the Tet moment for years and there may have been one in the works.

"A senior Defense Ministry official confirmed the plot, and said the 421 al-Qaida fighters involved were actually recruited to storm the U.S. and British embassies and take hostages. Several ranking Defense Ministry officials have been jailed in the plot, the official said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

Interior Minister Bayan Jabr, in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, said the al-Qaida recruits were one bureaucrat's signature away from acceptance into an Iraqi army battalion whose job it is to control the gates and main squares in the Green Zone. The plot was discovered three weeks ago."

I'm not exactly sure how the Enemy expected this to succeed, given that, yes, Iraqis do guard the entrances to the IZ - but in conjunction with American soldiers. They might be counting on the confusion factor, but I'm sure that once things started to go down, the life expectancy of an Enemy infiltrator would be short.

Even more so, I don't see how an attack on the Embassy would be able to net even one hostage. I wouldn't want to give anything away, but let's just say, any assault on the Embassy will fail. Spectacularly. Iraqis do NOT guard the points of access to the Embassy, so they couldn't infiltrate the system. Even I, as an American, have to jump through hoops to get on the grounds. And any assault by Iraqis with long arms would be put down far from the Embassy entrance.

But perhaps they don't need the attack to be successful. Maybe they're just counting on the fact that if they have the balls to attack the Embassy, people back home will freak out. Apparently that's what happened in the Tet Offensive. What, like one guy got over the Embassy wall in Saigon? (This was a little before my time.) Tactical and operational failure. Strategic victory.

Facts from the ground. Good to know. Remember, the Enemy is counting on your weakness to win!

Also in this article...

The government security apparatus, within two months, would begin trying to absorb all of the independent militia forces except for the Mahdi Army of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. "We must think of another solution for them," he said.

Kid Various can think of several solutions, all making liberal use of the Jersey term "Whack."


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